Strategies to build up social capital in Iran: The application of Future- oriented approach of Casual Layer Analysis

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 PhD of Futures Studies Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 PhD Student in Future Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

With increasing complexity and uncertainty in the various processes of human societies, predicting the future by generalizing past trends, seems to be unwise and almost impractical. Therefore, instead of relying on one status of the future, futurists tend to study alternative futures and present future-oriented strategies to predict the future. The purpose of this study is to explain and categorize strategies for uplifting social capital in four layers: litany, social, discourse and metaphor based on Casual Layer Analysis method. The innovation in this method, is to move from the present to the future by identifying the root factors of a phenomenon in four layers. Through identifying the factors affecting a phenomenon future, we can formulate strategies for acting in present and move from future to present. In this study, in order to identify the main causes  of social capital decline, we formed an online expert’s panels in four stages, comprising of fourteen persons. Findings indicated  that,  8 strategies at the level of symbols and metaphors, 13 strategies at the level of beliefs and discourses, 27 strategies at the level of structures and 31 strategies at the litany level has to be applied for formulating and implementing the necessary policies to increase social capital.

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