Futures study; presenting future image of organization using scenario planning: A study on Statistical Center of Iran

Document Type : Original Manuscript



Abstract: Futures study is relatively a new area of research that its territory covers all spheres of human theoretical knowledge, and its results could have a broad impact on human scientific efforts. However, predictions about futures may result in wrong prognosis, but this should not discontinue the scientific efforts for future researches. Scenario planning is a method for improving decision making in the face of possible and probable futures. It is an effective method for futures study that enables planners to examine the likelihood of occurrence for future happenings and forecast what happenings are unlikely to take place. The purpose of this study is to provide a futuristic image of Statistical Center of Iran in the year 1400. In this futures study, we applied a Scenario planning method using the Schwart’s  model of 1991. The result shows there are four main future scenarios for organizational structure of Statistical Center of Iran. These scenarios are  in the form of "An independent Public agency", "A centralized public agency", "An affiliated public agency" and "A coordinating public agency ". The four images presented in this research could shape the  vision and strategic planning of SCI.


گوهری فر، مصطفی(1391).ارائه تصویر آینده سازمان با استفاده از برنامه ریزی سناریو: مورد مطالعه مرکز آمار ایران، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد.دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.
ناظمی، امیر و روح اله قدیری(1385). آینده نگاری از مفهوم تا اجرا، مرکز صنایع نوین، تهران.
Alexander, W., & Serfass, R. (1998). Creating and analyzing your organization’s quality future. Quality Progress, 31(7), 31–36.
-Anne Marie D’Angelo(2010).A Futures Study of Internationalization of the Carlson School of Management: Diverse Perspectives of Key Stakeholders, A Dissertation submitted to the faculty of the graduate school of the university of Minnesota in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy.
-Aumnad Phdungsilp, (2010).Futures studies’ Backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning, Futures, doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.02
-Ayşe İdil Gaziulusoy, (2010).System Innovation for Sustainability: A Scenario Method and a Workshop Process for Product Development Teams, A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Faculty of Engineering, The University of Auckland.
Bauden, R. (1998, March). The Leadership Revolution. Keynote address to AUSTAFE Regional Conference, Ballarat, Victoria.
Bloom, M., & Menifee M. L. (1994). Scenario Planning and Contingency Planning. Public Productivity & Management Review, 71(3), 223–230.
Chermack, j.Tomas. (2011).Scenario planning in Organizations. Berrett-Koehler publication, San Francisco.
Collins, J. (2001). Good to great: Why some companies make the leap and others don’t. New York: HarperCollins.
De Geus, A. (1997). The living company. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Fahey, L., & Randall, R. M. (1998). What is scenario learning? In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios (pp.3–21). New York: Wiley.
Godet, M. (2001). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 51, 3–22.
Godet m. and Fabric Rubella (1996), creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios, Long Range Planning, vol29, no2.
Joshua Ryan Watkins, (2010).Shaping the future of northeast Michigan: Utilizing the Delphi method to inform planning scenario construction, a thesis submitted to Michigan state university in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science Geography.
Kahane, A. (2004). Solving tough problems. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.
Kloss, L. (1999). The suitability and application of scenario planning for national professional associations. Nonprofit Management & Leadership, 72(1), 71–83.
Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive advantage. New York: Free Press.
Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario planning: Managing for the future. New York: Wiley.
Simpson, D. G. (1992). Key lessons for adopting scenario planning in diversified companies. Planning Review, 02(3), 11–18.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 71(2), 25–40.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Doubleday.
Susan Hesse Owen. (1999).scenario planning approaches to facility location: models and solution methods, A Dissertation submitted to the graduate school of the in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy field on Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences.
Thomas, C. W. (1994). Learning from imagining the years ahead. Planning Review,00(3), 6–10.
Tucker, K. (1999). Scenario planning. Association Management, 17(4), 70–75.
Van der Heijden, K. (1997). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. New York: Wiley.
Wack P.; Uncharted waters ahead; Harvard Business Review, September/October, 1985.
Wilson, I. (2000). From scenario thinking to strategic action. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 51, 23–29.