شناسایی عمده‌ترین سوگیری‌های سرمایه‌گذاران در بازار سرمایه ایران با استفاده از روش فراتحلیل

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو دکتری دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استاد دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 استادیار دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد در دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

4 استاد دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

بازارهای سرمایه نقش مهمی در اقتصاد دارند، زیرا وجوه نقد افرادی که توان استفاده از وجوه خود را ندارند، به کسانی که این توانایی را دارند، هدایت می­کنند. طبیعتا عملکرد خوب این بازارها عامل کلیدی در تامین رشد اقتصادی خواهد بود، لذا اگر بازارهای سرمایه کارآ باشند، توسعه اقتصادی تحقق می­یابد. از سوی دیگر بدلیل تصمیم­گیری غیرمنطقی سرمایه­گذاران در بازار سرمایه خطاهای سیستماتیک رخ داده و همین مساله موجب عدم­کارآیی بازار می­شود. هدف این مقاله، شناسایی عمده­ترین سوگیری­های سرمایه­گذاران در بازار سرمایه با استفاده از روش فراتحلیل1 است. به همین جهت، با بررسی نظام­مندی که در پایگاه­های معتبر داخلی و خارجی (در دوره زمانی 2016-1980) صورت گرفته، در نهایت تعداد 60 مقاله که از روش تحلیل آماری یکسان در مورد سوگیری­های سرمایه­گذاران در بازار سرمایه استفاده کرده بودند با بهر­ه­گیری از نرم­افزار2CMA2 ، عمده­ترین سوگیری­های شناختی و عاطفی سرمایه­گذاران مشخص گردید. سوگیری­های شناختی شامل؛ اعتماد بیش از حد، اتکاء و تعدیل، نمایندگی، خوداسنادی، محافظه­کاری، ابهام­گریزی، حسابداری ذهنی، رویدادهای اخیر، شکل­دهی، اثر وضعی، خودکنترلی، و سوگیری­های عاطفی عبارت از: خوش­بینی، زیان­گریزی و پشیمان­گریزی هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the main biases of investors in the capital market of Iran: A meta-analysis study

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeedeh Baba jani Mohammadi 1
  • Saeed Mortazavi 2
  • Yaghoub Maharati 3
  • Reza Tehrani 4
2 Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM)
3 Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM)
4 Management/Finance, Department of Management, Faculty of Management, Tehran University
چکیده [English]

Capital market plays an important role in the economy, by transferring the cash fellow of people who cannot use their money at capital market. Therefore, a good performance of these markets could be a key factor in economic growth, so economic development will be achieved if capital markets work efficiently. On the other hand, due to irrational decisions of investors in the capital market, systematic errors may occur that causes inefficiencies in the market. This paper is aimed at identifying the main biases investors undertake in the capital market. Searching the major internal and external databases (for a period of 2016-1980), we reviewed 64 articles that have used the same statistical analysis about the biases investors undertake in capital markets. Using the CMA2 software, we found that the most significant cognitive biases are: overconfidence, self-reliance and adjustments, representation, self-attribution, conservatism, uncertainty avoiding, mental accounting, current events, shaping, work status, self-control, and emotional biases are : optimism, loss aversion and regret aversion.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Behavioral Finance
  • Capital Markets
  • Prospect Theory
  • Cognitive Bias
  • Emotional Bias
  • Meta-Analysis
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